Kalshi Bet $50M on Legal Prediction Markets. The Election Proved They Were Right.
The CFTC tried to shut them down. A federal court saved them. Then the 2024 election made Kalshi the most accurate forecaster in America — and the most dangerous company in finance.
By Alex Marchetti, Growth Editor · Feb 16, 2026
How Kalshi won a federal lawsuit, survived a CFTC ban, and turned the 2024 election into a proof-of-concept for regulated prediction markets in the US.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Kalshi?
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lets users trade on the outcomes of real-world events — elections, economic data, weather, and more. Founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi is the first federally regulated prediction market in the United States.
Is Kalshi legal?
Yes. Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a designated contract market. In 2024, a federal court ruled that the CFTC could not block Kalshi's election contracts, establishing legal precedent for political event contracts in the US.
How accurate were Kalshi's election predictions?
Kalshi's markets called 48 of 50 states correctly in the 2024 presidential election and were among the first platforms to signal a Trump victory, hours before traditional media outlets.
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